Is Vladimir Putin’s regime going the same way as Park Chung-hee’s in its final years? Let’s test this hypothesis. Authoritarian leaders tend to go through the same stages–eerily so. Can we predict what will happen with Putin by looking at what happened to Park?
Media recommendations – Russian horror movies
Viy (‘67, adaptation of Ukrainian-born Nikolai Gogol’s novella, set in Kyiv)
Savage Hunt for King Stakh (follows ‘wild hunt’ folklore motif)
The Vampire Family (adaptation of Aleksey Tolstoy’s The Family of Vourdalak; example of necrorealism)
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Notes
Putin and similarities to PCH
- (March, 2000) Putin elected
- Joke around Moscow: Putin says Russia’s new model of development will be Korea. He just hasn’t decided whether it’s North Korea or South Korea
- Hypothesis: Both started with benign intentions that devolved into The Dark Side under pressures to remain in power beyond their expiration dates
- I have no proof of that. Maybe both were playing the long game and intended to be in power for life. Or they may have entered power with high ideals that turned into higher purpose–which leads to dark tendencies.
- Both gradually got more authoritarian with each re-election
| Topic | Park Chung-hee | Vladimir Putin |
| Came to power after a period of political chaos and disenchantment with pluralism (democracy). Started out as being part of the liberal camp and then went straight to the right when they saw opportunity. | Second Republic (Dec 29, 1960)more violence and vote riggingNew gov’t still full of corrupted personnel from previous regimeGov’t posts were purely based on connections, not merit or competency | Narrative that Putin restored stability after the Yeltsin Era. People forget that tanks fired on Russian Parliament in 1993. Statist Anatoly Sobchak. Tried coups against Yeltsin. This prompted Yeltsin to protect himself and in the process brought up Putin, who took over a lot of Sobchak’s team and became the new statists. Bespredel – Title of a 1989 prison drama that meant anarchic freedom and unaccountable authority Public became disenchanted with democracy. Putin came to power with the slogan “the dictatorship of law” |
| Modernization leap vs. Price paid | Current debates about PCH and SK are similar to debates about Stalin and USSR Rhie Won-Bok writes, “two choices were before him—bread and democracy. He chose bread. True, bread may have been a mere justification for strengthening Pak’s dictatorial regime, but there are many who recognize that his strong economic development policies, backed by his dictatorial power, enabled the Koreans to break free from the chains of poverty” | Russia’s economic recovery mostly came from Yeltsin’s structural reforms, cheap western credit, and fossil fuel money. Unlike Korea, Russia has abundant natural resources, so not much impetus to becoming an industrial/tech economy. A Petrol State. (1997) Putin wrote a doctoral thesis advocating the need for “national champions” by nationalizing or controlling natural resources. |
| Ushered in an era of prosperity and stability Middle class grew | Grew at the beginning but started to have its first slowdown in the late ‘60s. So… DICTATORSHIP! | Grew during first term and has dwindled since 2012. So… WAR! |
| Found ways to stay in power beyond what the constitution states | Yushin Constitution | 2 four-year terms (2000-2008)Dmitry Medvedev (Putin’s Robin)Putin prime ministerAmendment lengthened presidential terms2 six-year terms (2012-2024)2020 ConstitutionPutin can stay in power until 2036 |
| Concocting a national myth/religion/ideology | Yushin ideology (see below) Said Mustafa Kemal Atatürk was his role model | Putin saw nationalism as an ideology to centralize control. Role model is Tsar Alexander III. He also told PGH that PCH was his role model. |
| Modeling the West in modernization and then rejecting its values | At first intended to copy the tech of the west and Japan Do it the Korean way | Reformers tried to emulate the West and learn as much as possible. When success wasn’t immediate, public became disillusioned, pushing it towards nationalism. |
| Extreme nationalismGive the State a quasi-religious position. Over-simplifies politics, so people don’t have to think. In fact, independent thought is the first casualty.Creates fanatics Similar to chaebols and cultsCriticizing the State and its leaders is like criticizing your religious leader. Critics are haters and traitors | Promoting Korean cultureImplementing an official nationalistic history that is still in place today | Interesting that Putin published a 2012 article “Russia: The Ethnicity Issue,” which argued AGAINST ethno-nationalism. Contrast from PCH and–well–Hitler. But hold on there! The excuse for invading Ukraine to protect ethnic Russians is similar to Hitler’s excuse for invading Poland and other eastern territories to protect ethnic Germans. |
| Regime of veterans | Military | Siloviki (except Medvedev) |
| Concentrated power in the executive | Post-Soviet Russia’s debates weren’t between capitalism and communism. It was between the statists and the pluralists. The statists won (again). | |
| Reduced the legislature to a rubber stamp | ||
| Made elections just formal affairs | The 2020 constitutional vote was called the most manipulative in the country’s history | |
| Politicized the judiciary | Revolutionary Courts (July 12, 1961 – May 10, 1962) Crackdown on student activists and organized crimeBusinessmen under Sygman Rhee | |
| Politicized law enforcement | ||
| Tried to assassinate opponents | Kim Dae-jung | Alexei Navalny (2020)Early in USSR, secret poison lab, “Kamera,” developed undetectable poisons that were tested on gulag prisonersViktor Yushchenko (2004, politician, dioxin)Anna Politkovskaya (2004, journalist, poisoned tea, survived but was shot dead 2 years later on Putin’s b’day)Alexander Litvinenko (2006, former FSB officer, polonium-210 in tea, one alleged poisoner was elected to parliament)Sergey Skripal (2018, former intelligence officer, “Novichok” nerve agent, poisoners were previously awarded Russia’s highest state honor by Putin himself)Vladimir Kara-Murza (2015, 2017, activist, organ failure from heavy metals)Petr Verzilov (2018, Russian-Canadian unofficial Pussy Riot spokesperson, later helped Navalny be airlifted to Germany) |
| Cracked down on dissent | (1974-75) Emergency resolutions banning criticism of Yushin Constitution or the regime | Jail time for criticizing the war and the government |
| Cracked down on artists and intellectuals | Art and Culture Ethics Committee of the South Korean Federation of Cultural Organizations (1975) Blacklist of 261 “decadent” protest songs, folk ballads and rock and psychedelic music, including:Blowing in the WindI Shot the SheriffDelilaElvis songs Also cracking down on marijuana, long hair, and short skirts Censoring Korean songs since 1966 | Pussy Riot |
| Brought state-owned economies under tight control | ||
| Intervened in the private sector | ||
| Concentration of money and power in cronies in security services (Silovarchies)Different from oligarchies | ||
| Security and armed forces dominate politics and big business | ||
| Intimidate/expropriate business rivals throughintelligence networks, | ||
| state prosecutors | Recent stripping of power of prosecutors | |
| armed force | ||
| Resistant to change (need incumbent to stay in power) | During Yeltsin, he had to get support of the oligarchs and media empires to stay in power and stave off the communists trying to return to power, undercutting his values. Those same people jumped to Putin. | |
| Seeds of their own destruction:Longer in power, more dangerousUnstable | ||
| FactionsTurf battlesConflicting economic interestsCorrupt vs. purists | ||
| Lack safety valves that plurality gives. Those who are locked out take to the streets. | SK – student rallies almost every year from the 1960s-70s despite crackdowns | Kyiv’s Orange Revolution (2004) |
| Economy | ||
| Strong economy legitimizes in the short term | ||
| Middle class that grew from that economy starts to demand pluralism | ||
| Weakened economy quickly delegitimizes | (1978) Rigged parliamentary election & weakening economyProtests revivedRuling elite lost enthusiasm for repression |
Yushin ideology
- Need for strong authority
- Hierarchical subordination
- Fucked-up Confucianism
- Social harmony based on national consciousness
- Authoritarianism is naturally Korean/Asian culture
- Similar to Juche and Maoism in how their Lenin-Marxist ideologies distinguished them as fitting Asian cultures
- In reality, just excuses to snatch and maintain power
- Similar to Juche and Maoism in how their Lenin-Marxist ideologies distinguished them as fitting Asian cultures
- Western advancement without Western values (similar to Donghak)
- Do it the Korean way
- Attached a foreign component to modernization, implying that social liberalization is not related to economic modernization. It’s a foreign concept that can be surgically removed.
- Technical modernization = Universal
- Social modernization = Western (foreign)
- You still see this today
- Keep in mind that the opposition didn’t necessarily promote democratic values as well. They came from the same authoritarian culture. (Michael Breen)
- “South Korea’s democratic transition in 1987 was a conservative one, mainly because critical decisions were made by political elites from the top-down without incorporating voices from the bottom-up” (Kim Sun-chul)
- (1990) Democratization was 16th out of 18 most pressing issues (The Chosun Ilbo and the Gallup Institute)
